Learning, Policy Making, and Market Reforms

Half-title......Page 3
Title......Page 5
Copyright......Page 6
Contents......Page 7
Figures......Page 9
Tables......Page 10
List of Abbreviations......Page 12
Acknowledgments......Page 13
ONE The Question......Page 17
1.1. Governments, Market Reforms, and Learning......Page 21
1.2. Varieties of Learning......Page 30
Social Learning......Page 31
Rational Learning and Bounded Learning......Page 33
1.3. Policy Convergence, Learning, and Alternative Hypotheses......Page 38
1.4. Plan of the Book......Page 45
TWO The Model......Page 53
On Priors......Page 56
The Setting......Page 58
2.2. On Posteriors......Page 63
2.3. Policy Choices......Page 74
2.4. Discussion......Page 83
APPENDIX......Page 85
Example: Different Priors, Very Similar Posteriors......Page 87
THREE Learning and Development Strategies......Page 89
3.1. Development Strategies: A Description and Alternative Explanations......Page 91
3.2. Learning and Development Strategies: The Data......Page 97
3.3. Learning and Development Strategies: The Results......Page 105
Learning from Others versus Learning from Shocks......Page 106
Learning from Crisis and the Diffusion of Democracy......Page 111
3.4. Discussion......Page 119
World Bank Development Report (1987) Criteria for Regime Classification......Page 123
TRADE LIBERALIZATION DATABASE, 1970–1999......Page 124
FOUR Learning and Privatization......Page 127
4.1. Explaining Privatization......Page 129
4.2. Learning and Privatization: The Data......Page 137
4.3. Learning and Privatization: The Results......Page 141
Alternative Hypotheses......Page 143
4.4. Discussion......Page 153
APPENDIX......Page 156
FIVE Learning and Capital Account Liberalization......Page 158
5.1. The Political Economy of Capital Account Liberalization......Page 161
5.2. Learning and Capital Account Liberalization: The Data......Page 166
5.3. Mexico: A Narrative on Learning, Financial Liberalization, and Financial Crisis......Page 173
5.4. Learning and Capital Account Liberalization: The Results......Page 179
Learning and Financial Crises......Page 183
5.5. Discussion......Page 193
APPENDIX......Page 195
SIX Learning and IMF Agreements......Page 197
6.1. Explaining IMF Agreements......Page 199
6.2. Consequences of IMF Agreements......Page 205
6.3. Learning and IMF Agreements: The Data......Page 209
Baseline Model......Page 212
Extended Model......Page 215
Learning from the 1982 Crisis and IMF Agreements......Page 221
6.5. Discussion......Page 224
APPENDIX......Page 226
SEVEN Conclusions......Page 230
7.1. Lessons about Learning......Page 232
Learning and Economic Shocks......Page 240
7.2. Alternative Hypotheses......Page 242
Imposition and Emulation......Page 243
Domestic Politics and Economics......Page 245
7.3. What Remains To Be Learned?......Page 247
About Theory......Page 248
Normative and Policy Questions: The Prospects forMarket Reform in Developing Countries......Page 250
References......Page 257
Index......Page 277